How often do first-time guests return, and from which source?
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a bakery-cafe chain. The cohort is every guest whose first visit fell between January and June last year, matched across POS, the ordering app and loyalty.
- Cohort: 24,000 new guests, 8,400 returned. First-visit return rate = 8,400 ÷ 24,000 × 100 = 35%.
- Walk-in: 41% returned
- Delivery app: 18% returned
- Loyalty sign-up offer: 47% returned
What the data shows
Delivery app guests return at under half the rate of walk-ins, and loyalty sign-ups return most.
What it means
The delivery app brings volume but few lasting guests. Guests who join loyalty on the first visit have a reason to come back.
What to do
Ask every walk-in to join loyalty at the till, and include an in-store offer in delivery orders.
Would you like the same view by first item ordered?
First-visit return rate formula
Why it matters
A first visit only pays off if the guest comes back. Measuring how many first-time guests return within 90 days, by the source that brought them in, shows which channels deliver lasting guests and which ones only fill a single table.
Frequently asked questions
What share of first-time restaurant guests come back?
It varies by format and cuisine, so set your own baseline. Measure the share of first-time guests who return within 90 days for each venue and source, then track it every quarter. A rising rate means the first visit is turning more guests into regulars.
Why measure return rate by acquisition source?
Sources that bring the most first visits are not always the ones that bring guests back. Comparing return rates by source shows which channels deliver lasting guests, so budget can move toward them and away from those that only add one-off visits.
Why use a 90-day window for first-visit return?
Ninety days is long enough for most guests to make a second visit and short enough to act on quickly. Venues with slower visit cycles, such as fine dining, may need six months. Keep the window the same for every cohort.