Does late delivery impact repeat purchase over six months?
The short answer
Measure late delivery impact on repeat purchase by comparing customers who had a fulfillment problem with similar customers whose orders arrived on time. Match the two groups on past spend, category and first or repeat status, then compare the share who bought again within six months. The gap is the retention cost of the problem.
Why it matters
Fulfillment problems cost more than the refund or credit given at the time. If they push customers away, the real cost is the future orders those customers no longer place, which can dwarf the cost of fixing the delivery issue.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a footwear retailer. It compares spring customers who had a late or failed delivery with matched customers whose orders arrived on time.
- Late or failed delivery: 6,400 customers, 31% bought again within six months
- On time: 6,400 customers, 42% bought again
What the data shows
The problem group came back 11 points less often, about 700 fewer customers and roughly $98,000 in lost revenue.
What it means
First-time customers took the biggest hit, at 18% against 33%. Repeat customers barely changed.
What to do
Prioritize delivery recovery for first-time customers, with a follow-up and a credit on their next order.
Want me to build the affected first-time customers as a segment?
Frequently asked questions
Why use a matched comparison group?
Customers who hit delivery problems may differ from others, for example by buying bulky items or ordering at peak times. Comparing them with everyone else mixes those differences into the result. A group matched on spend, category and timing isolates the effect of the problem itself.
Are first-time customers more sensitive to delivery problems?
Often, yes. A first-time customer has no history with the brand to balance one bad experience, so a late or damaged first order can end the relationship. Repeat customers tend to give more benefit of the doubt. Check the split in your own data before deciding where to focus fixes.
How soon after a delivery problem should I follow up?
Within days, while the problem is fresh and the customer is still deciding whether to come back. Lead with a clear apology and a fix, then a reason to order again that suits the customer's history. Measure whether followed-up customers return more often than a small group left alone.