Is it real demand or pull forward demand from discounting?
The short answer
Pull forward demand shows up in the weeks after a promotion. If full-price sales dip below their usual level and existing customers bought sooner than their normal repurchase gap, the lead over plan is borrowed from future weeks. Real growth comes with new customers and steady full-price sales after the event.
Why it matters
A quarter that runs ahead of plan on promotions can lead to raised forecasts, extra stock and a shortfall the following quarter. Separating real demand from pulled-forward sales keeps the plan honest and stops one strong month driving the wrong buy.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a furniture retailer 7% ahead of plan after a Labor Day sale, at $46.0 million against $43.0 million.
- Sale weeks: $9.8 million against a plan of $6.5 million
- Four weeks after: $10.1 million against $11.0 million
- All other weeks: $26.1 million against $25.5 million
- New customers: 24% of sale buyers, against 31% last year
What the data shows
The sale added $3.3 million, and $0.9 million has already come back out in the weeks after.
What it means
Existing customers bought a median 70 days ahead of their usual gap. Mattresses carried most of the pull forward, while sofas drew new customers and held full-price sales.
What to do
Plan the next four weeks below the original plan for mattresses, and keep sofas on plan.
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Frequently asked questions
What is sales pull forward?
Sales pull forward happens when a promotion moves purchases customers would have made later into the promotion period. Total demand barely changes, but sales cluster around the event and dip afterward. The tell is a below-plan period after the promotion and existing customers buying ahead of their usual timing.
Why does a promotion lift look bigger than it is?
The lift is usually measured during the event, against a normal week. Purchases borrowed from the following weeks and sales that would have happened anyway at full price both get counted as lift. Net lift is the promotion-period gain minus the post-promotion dip and the discount on sales you would have made anyway.
How long does the promotion pull forward effect last?
Roughly as long as the products' usual repurchase gap. For consumables it may be a few weeks, and for furniture or other durable goods it can be months. Measure the dip in full-price sales after each event against plan and last year until it closes.