Which declining product categories can you still act on?
The short answer
Eight weeks of data is enough to flag declining product categories while you can still change the buy. Compare each category's recent units, full-price sell through and number of distinct buyers with the same weeks last year, and flag any category falling on two of the three. Buyer counts can turn before revenue does, because price rises hide fewer buyers.
Why it matters
A category that slides unnoticed until the season lands leaves you with a full buy and falling demand, which ends in markdowns. Catching the decline early lets you cut open orders, shift marketing spend and reallocate stock while those fixes still cost little.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a toy retailer eight weeks before the holiday season. It compares revenue, units, distinct buyers and full-price sell-through against the same weeks last year.
- Collectible figures: revenue down 2%, units down 14%, buyers down 19%, full-price sell-through 48% against 61%.
- Craft kits: revenue up 4%, units up 6%, buyers up 3%, sell-through steady at 55%.
What the data shows
Collectible figures look flat on revenue because a price rise is covering the loss of nearly one buyer in five.
What it means
Repeat collectors are still buying, but new buyers fell by a third. The trend is fading among casual shoppers.
What to do
Cut the open order for entry-level figures and keep depth on collector lines.
Eight weeks of data is an early signal. Want me to rerun this weekly until the season starts?
Frequently asked questions
What makes a reliable early warning for declining sales?
A useful early warning moves before revenue does and is hard to distort. Distinct buyer counts and full-price sell through pass both tests, because price rises and promotions can prop up revenue for weeks. Set a rule such as two of three signals down for three straight weeks, so one bad week does not trigger a cut.
Why can revenue hide declining product categories?
Revenue blends price and volume. A price increase, a richer product mix or fewer markdowns can keep revenue flat while fewer customers buy fewer units. By the time revenue drops, the season's buy is usually locked in. Track units and distinct buyers next to revenue to see the decline earlier.
How far ahead of a season should I check category trends?
Start when you can still change something, which supplier lead times usually decide. If open orders can be cut eight weeks out, begin weekly checks at ten or twelve weeks, giving a trend time to confirm. For fast-turning categories with short lead times, four to six weeks may be enough.