Hotel guests who book early at full rate, and who wait for a deal
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for an urban hotel group with seven hotels. It sorts guests by booking lead time and rate paid across their stays in the past two years.
- Early full-rate bookers: book 30 or more days ahead, 85% or more of stays at full rate
- Deal waiters: book within 7 days, 70% or more of stays on a discounted rate
- Mixed: everyone in between
- Includes guests with two or more stays.
What the data shows
21,000 guests are early full-rate bookers, 9,400 are deal waiters and 14,800 are mixed.
What it means
Last month's flash sale email went to all 45,200, and 3,100 early bookers used it on stays they would likely have booked at full rate.
What to do
Leave early bookers out of flash sales, send them early-access dates, and send last-minute offers to deal waiters only.
Want me to build the three groups as segments?
Why it matters
Last-minute deals fill rooms, but if they reach guests who would have booked anyway at full rate, they only give away revenue. Knowing which guests book early and which wait for a deal lets you protect rate with one group and target offers at the other.
Frequently asked questions
How do hotels protect their rates from discounting?
Target discounts at the guests who need them. Separate guests who usually book early at full rate from those who wait for deals, and leave the first group out of flash sales. Give early bookers value through perks or early access in place of price.
How do you tell early bookers from deal waiters?
Look at each guest's booking lead time and the rate they paid across several stays. Guests who regularly book well ahead at full rate are early bookers, while those who book late on discounted rates are deal waiters. One stay is rarely enough to judge.
Do last-minute deals hurt hotel revenue?
They help when they fill rooms that would otherwise sit empty. They hurt when guests who would pay full rate learn to wait. Sending deals only to guests who need them protects rate while still filling late availability.