Which past hotel guests are most likely to book in the next 90 days?
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a ski resort with 300 rooms. It scores past guests using stay history from the PMS, lift and rental spend, and email activity.
- Raises the score for guests who stayed in the same season in two or more past years.
- Raises the score for guests near their usual booking date.
- Raises the score for guests who opened a resort email in the last 30 days.
- Excludes guests with a stay already booked.
What the data shows
5,800 past guests score high. 2,100 of them usually book within the next six weeks.
What it means
These guests are about to choose where to ski this season. Reaching them now puts the resort first in mind before they compare options.
What to do
Send the 2,100 an early-season booking email this week, and the rest of the high scorers in three weeks.
Want me to push both groups to Klaviyo?
Why it matters
Sending the same rebooking email to every past guest wastes the best moment with the guests who are actually planning a trip. Scoring guests on how likely they are to book soon puts your offers in front of the ones ready to decide.
Frequently asked questions
How do hotels predict which guests will book again?
Use what past guests have done: how often they stayed, when they usually book, how long ago their last stay was and whether they still open your emails. Guests who return at the same time each year are the most predictable.
How far ahead should hotels contact likely rebookers?
Contact them shortly before their usual booking date, which you can find from past stays. For seasonal properties, that is often a few weeks before the season opens. Too early and they forget, too late and they have booked elsewhere.
What should a rebooking email include?
Remind guests of what they enjoyed, such as their room, activities or dining, and give a simple reason to book direct, such as early access or a small perk. Make booking quick, with dates close to their last stay already suggested.