What a new store sales ramp should look like by month six
The short answer
Judge a new store sales ramp against your own network's opening curve after six months of trading. Average the monthly revenue of recent openings with a similar format, then compare the new store's revenue, average order value and repeat rate month by month. Repeat rate tells you whether early sales will last.
Why it matters
Opening revenue can look strong on launch promotions and curiosity visits, then fade. Comparing the ramp and repeat rate with past openings shows early whether a store is on track, and gives you time to fix staffing, range or local marketing while the store is still building its customer base.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a home improvement retailer that opened a store in March. It compares month six with the average of its last six openings.
- Revenue: $1.02 million, 93% of the network average
- Average order value: $68, against $74
- Month-one customers who bought again: 38%, against 47%
What the data shows
Revenue is close to the curve, but lower repeat and smaller baskets suggest the opening crowd has not become regular customers.
What it means
Trade contractors are 18% of the store's customers, against 30% across the network, and contractors drive repeat visits. The revenue gap is likely to widen.
What to do
Run a local trade account push in the store's first year.
Want me to compare the new store's customer mix with each of the last six openings?
Frequently asked questions
Which stores belong in a new store benchmark?
Use openings from the past three to five years with a similar format, size and location type. Leave out stores that opened in unusual conditions, such as a major refit nearby or a forced closure. Five or more comparable openings give a curve stable enough to judge against.
Why is opening revenue a poor guide to a new store?
Opening months carry launch offers, local press and curiosity visits that do not repeat. A store can beat the curve in month two and fall behind by month six if those first customers never return. Repeat rate from the opening cohort shows whether early revenue will hold.
How long does a new store ramp up take?
Measure it in your own network, since it varies with format and location. Track how many months past openings took to reach the revenue of a comparable mature store, and use that as the expected ramp. Reviewing at six and twelve months gives early warning and a fuller picture.