Measuring store closure impact on customers, month by month
The short answer
To measure store closure impact on customers, take everyone who bought at the closed store in its final year and track where they bought afterward: the nearest store, another store, online or nowhere. The share still buying anywhere is your customer retention, and the share who stopped is the real cost of the closure.
Why it matters
Closure business cases often assume most customers will transfer to the nearest store or online. If fewer move than planned, the closure costs more revenue than the lease saves. Measuring the real shift tells you whether to follow up with lapsed customers and how to plan the next closure.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a jewelry retailer that closed a mall store. It tracks the store's 6,400 customers across every channel for nine months.
- Moved to the nearest store, 12 miles away: 27%
- Moved online: 20%
- Moved to another store: 6%
- Stopped buying: 47%, about 3,000 customers
What the data shows
The closure plan assumed 70% of customers would transfer. Only 53% have bought anywhere since.
What it means
Customers who already bought online moved easily. Most of the 3,000 who stopped had only shopped in that store, and over half bought there in its final six months.
What to do
Send the lapsed group an offer that names the nearest store and the online options.
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Frequently asked questions
How long should I track store closure customer retention?
Track monthly for at least nine to twelve months. Many customers buy only a few times a year, so a three-month view counts infrequent shoppers as lost when they simply have not needed anything yet. Compare each customer's gap since closing with their usual purchase gap before deciding they have stopped.
Why do closure forecasts overestimate sales transfer?
Forecasts often assume customers value the brand more than the location. Customers who shopped only in that store, or who found it convenient to a workplace or a mall they visit anyway, can drift to a competitor nearby. Sales transfer depends on distance, channel habits and how loyal each customer already was.
How do I estimate store closing impact on sales ahead of a closure?
Use your existing customer data. Count how many of the store's customers have also bought online or at another store, and how far they live from the nearest alternative. Customers with another channel or a nearby store are likely to transfer. Plan the rest as lost unless you act.