Offers that drove visits but gave away margin to regular guests
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a cocktail lounge group with five venues. It compares offer recipients with a holdout group that did not receive each offer, using POS visits within 14 days.
- Two-for-one cocktails: 3,400 redemptions, 900 extra visits against the holdout, $41,000 in discount
- Free appetizer with dinner: 1,800 redemptions, 1,100 extra visits, $14,000 in discount
- Members' tasting night: 600 redemptions, 450 extra visits, $5,000 in discount
What the data shows
Two-for-one cocktails had the most redemptions but added the fewest visits per dollar of discount.
What it means
About 74% of two-for-one redeemers would have visited anyway, so most of its discount went to regulars.
What to do
Limit two-for-one to lapsed guests, and run the appetizer offer and tasting night more often.
Want me to show cost per extra visit for every offer this year?
Why it matters
An offer that fills tables can still lose money if most redeemers were coming anyway. Measuring each offer against a holdout group shows how many visits it truly added, how much margin it gave away to regulars, and which offers are worth running again.
Frequently asked questions
How do you know if an offer gave away margin?
Compare guests who received the offer with a similar holdout group who did not. The difference in visits shows what the offer added. If most redeemers would have visited anyway, the discount mostly reduced margin on visits you already had.
What is cost per extra visit?
It is the discount given divided by the extra visits an offer created against a holdout group. It shows what each additional visit really cost, which makes it easier to compare offers fairly than redemption counts alone.
Who should restaurant offers target?
Guests whose behavior the offer can change, such as lapsed guests or occasional visitors on quiet nights. Regulars who visit anyway respond better to recognition, events or early access, which protect margin and still give them a reason to visit.