Rank lapsing guests by how likely they are to respond
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for an oyster bar group with four venues. It scores lapsing guests from 0 to 100 using visit history, recent email and site activity, and how they responded to past winbacks.
- Includes guests past 1.5 times their usual visit gap and inside a 12-month lapse window.
- Uses past spend only to set offer size within each score band.
- Excludes guests sent a winback in the last 90 days.
What the data shows
- Score 70 and above: 1,600 guests
- 40 to 69: 3,900 guests
- Below 40: 4,300 guests
What it means
Of the top 500 past spenders, only 140 score 70 or above. Most of the rest have stopped engaging.
What to do
Send the top band an invitation first, the middle band a week later, and move the lowest band to paid social.
Want me to push each band to Klaviyo or Meta?
Why it matters
Winback lists are usually sorted by past spend, but big spenders who have moved on rarely respond. Ranking lapsing guests by how likely they are to come back puts the budget and the best offers where they will actually bring guests through the door.
Frequently asked questions
Why rank lapsing guests by likely response?
Past spend shows what a guest was worth, but not whether they will come back. Ranking by likely response puts your winback budget on guests who are still reachable, then uses past spend to size the offer within each group.
What signals show a lapsing guest is likely to return?
Recent email opens or site visits, a short time past their usual visit gap, a history of returning after past lapses and a long history with the venue. Guests well past their gap with no recent activity are the least likely to respond.
What should happen to lapsing guests who score low?
Move them to lower-cost channels, such as paid social or an occasional email, and stop spending on direct offers. If they respond there, move them back into the main winback flow. Rescore everyone monthly, since engagement changes quickly.