Winback campaign targeting: rank lapsing customers by response
The short answer
Rank lapsing customers for a winback campaign on how likely they are to respond, then use past spend to break ties. Score each customer on how far past their usual purchase gap they are, recent email or site activity, how many times they have bought and whether they came back after earlier lapses. High scorers get the first send.
Why it matters
Ranking by past spend sends the biggest offers to big spenders who may have left for good, while likely responders with modest history get nothing. Ranking by response puts winback discounts where they are most likely to return a purchase, which lowers cost per reactivated customer.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for an apparel retailer with 38,000 lapsing customers. It scores each one from 0 to 100 on likely response to a winback offer.
- Uses time past usual gap, recent email or site activity, order count and past returns from a lapse.
- Uses 24-month spend only to set offer depth.
- Excludes anyone sent a winback in the last 90 days.
What the data shows
- Score 70 and above: 7,400 customers
- 40 to 69: 15,600
- Below 40: 15,000
What it means
Spend and response are different things. Among the top 1,000 past spenders, only 260 score 70 or above.
What to do
Send the top band first with a light offer, the middle band a week later, and move the lowest band to paid social.
Would you like me to push each band to Klaviyo or Meta?
Frequently asked questions
How do you reactivate lapsed customers without overspending?
Start with the customers most likely to respond, use the lightest offer that works for them, and save deeper discounts for high-value customers with a reasonable chance of returning. Test each wave against a holdout, since some lapsing customers return on their own and should not be credited to the campaign.
Why not rank lapsing customers by how much they used to spend?
Past spend shows what a customer was worth, which says little about whether they will come back. Some former big spenders have moved on for good, while modest customers who still open emails are ready to buy. Ranking by response first, then value, puts each offer where it is most likely to work.
When should a lapsed customer winback start?
Start when a customer passes their usual gap between purchases by a clear margin, such as 1.5 times, well before your full lapse window ends. Earlier contact needs smaller incentives, because the habit has not fully broken. Customers past the full window tend to respond less and cost more to bring back.