Finding the one-time buyers most likely to come back
The short answer
Rank one-time buyers by how likely they are to make a second purchase, using what similar customers did: days since their first order, the product they bought, how they were acquired and whether they have opened emails or visited since. Reach the high scorers now, while they still sit inside the usual gap between first and second orders.
Why it matters
One-time buyers are often the largest group in a customer base, and each one who returns is far more likely to buy again. Reaching the right ones at the right moment converts more of them for the same spend, and lifts repeat rate without discounting the whole group.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a pet retailer with 48,000 one-time buyers from the past year. Customers who did return took a median 34 days.
- Raises the score for first orders of food or litter.
- Raises the score for email or site visits in the past 30 days.
- Lowers the score for first orders with a 30% or deeper code.
- Lowers the score after 120 days since the first order.
What the data shows
9,600 customers score in the top band, and 14,000 more sit in the middle.
What it means
The top band needs a reminder at the right moment more than a discount.
What to do
Send the top band a refill reminder timed to their likely date, with no discount, and the middle band a smaller nudge.
Want me to push each band to Klaviyo?
Frequently asked questions
How do you turn one time buyers into repeat customers?
Reach them within the usual gap between first and second orders, with a message tied to what they bought first. Recommend the natural next product, remind consumable buyers when they are due, and keep discounts for customers who show weaker signals. Measure each tactic against a holdout.
Why not send every one-time buyer the same offer?
One-time buyers range from customers about to come back to customers who were only ever chasing a deal. A blanket offer spends discount on people who would return anyway and barely moves those who will not. Scoring them first puts effort where it changes behavior.
When does a one-time buyer become unlikely to return?
Once they pass well beyond the usual gap between first and second orders in your business. Measure that gap from customers who did return, and treat one-time buyers at two or three times it as lapsed. Their odds fall, and they need a different, lower-cost approach.