Your active guest base in 12 months, if lapse continues
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a regional coffee chain with 26 locations. It uses the last 12 months of matched POS and app data.
- Active guests today: 180,000
- Annual lapse rate: 42%. Retained = 180,000 × (1 - 0.42) = 104,400.
- Expected new guests: 61,000
- Expected returning lapsed guests: 9,000
- Forecast = 104,400 + 61,000 + 9,000 = 174,400
What the data shows
At current rates, the active base shrinks by about 5,600 guests, or 3%.
What it means
Cutting lapse by three points would add about 5,400 guests, almost closing the gap without extra acquisition spend.
What to do
Focus on guests in their first three months, where most lapse happens.
The forecast holds today's rates steady. Want me to show lapse by month since first visit?
Active guest base forecast formula
Why it matters
A shrinking active base shows up in sales months later, after the chance to act has passed. Projecting it forward at today's lapse, acquisition and return rates shows where the base is heading and how much each lever would change the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
How do you forecast a restaurant's active guest base?
Start with today's active guests, remove the share you expect to lapse, then add expected new guests and lapsed guests who come back. Use rates from the last 12 months and update the forecast each quarter as they change.
What has the biggest effect on the active guest base?
Usually lapse. Small changes in how many guests stop visiting move the base more than similar changes in acquisition, because they apply to everyone you already have. Model each lever to see which matters most for your venues.
Why does guest lapse matter for revenue planning?
Fewer active guests means fewer visits next year, even if spend per visit holds. A forecast of the active base gives finance and marketing an early warning, and a clear target for how many guests need to be kept or won.