What this quarter's new guests will spend over the next 12 months
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a pancake house chain that acquired 22,000 guests this quarter. It applies last year's cohort spend by acquisition source to this quarter's mix.
- Last year's cohort: $118 average 12-month spend. $146 from walk-ins and search, $64 from a delivery app promotion.
- This quarter: 45% came through the delivery promotion, against 30% last year.
- Mix-adjusted average: (55% × $146) + (45% × $64) = $109.10
- Forecast: 22,000 × $109.10 = about $2.40 million
What the data shows
The shift toward delivery app guests lowers the forecast by about $196,000 against last year's average.
What it means
More new guests does not mean more future revenue if they come through a channel that rarely brings them back.
What to do
Plan on $2.4 million, and check the first 90 days of repeat visits before confirming it.
Want me to show the cohort curve by acquisition source?
Why it matters
New guest numbers alone say little about next year's revenue. Applying last year's cohort behavior to this quarter's new guests, adjusted for where they came from, gives finance a realistic forecast and shows marketing which sources bring guests who keep spending.
Frequently asked questions
How do you forecast spend from new restaurant guests?
Take last year's new guests, measure what they spent over the following 12 months by acquisition source, then apply those amounts to this quarter's new guests, weighted by where they came from. Check against early repeat visits before relying on it.
Why adjust the forecast for acquisition mix?
Guests from different sources behave differently. If this quarter brought more guests through a promotion whose guests rarely return, an unadjusted average will overstate next year. Weighting by source gives a more realistic figure. Recheck the weights each quarter.
When should a cohort forecast be updated?
Recheck it after the first 90 days, when repeat visits show whether this cohort is behaving like last year's. If new guests are returning faster or slower, adjust the forecast before it goes into next year's budget.