What happens to revenue and margin if you drop midweek offers?
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a Cajun seafood group with eight venues. It looks at last year's midweek offer redemptions from POS and each redeemer's other visits.
- Midweek offer visits: 41,000, $1.2 million in discount
- Redeemers who also visit at full price on other days: 58%
- Redeemers who only ever visit with the offer: 42%
What the data shows
More than half of redeemers already visit at full price, so many midweek visits would likely continue without the discount.
What it means
If offer-only guests stopped coming and the rest stayed, revenue would fall about 3%, but margin would rise about $520,000.
What to do
Drop the offer at the four busiest venues first, keep it at the quietest, and compare midweek covers for eight weeks.
The forecast assumes full-price guests keep visiting. Want me to show the split by venue?
Why it matters
Midweek offers are hard to drop because no one knows what would happen without them. Modeling the effect, based on who uses the offers and how those guests behave at other times, turns a gut call into a forecast of revenue and margin.
Frequently asked questions
Should restaurants drop midweek discounts?
Look at who uses them first. If most redeemers also visit at full price, the offer is mostly discounting visits that would happen anyway, and dropping it can lift margin. If redeemers only come for the deal, removing it will cost covers.
How do you model the effect of removing an offer?
Split redeemers by whether they also visit without the offer, estimate how many would keep visiting, then compare lost revenue with the discount saved. Test the change at a few venues before rolling it out.
What should replace a midweek discount?
Reasons to visit that protect margin, such as a midweek event, a limited menu or a members' night. They keep midweek traffic up while giving guests something more than a lower price. Test one at the venues where you drop the offer.