First purchase churn by product and channel
The short answer
Score this quarter's new customers for first purchase churn using patterns from last year's cohort: first product, acquisition channel, discount on the first order and whether they opened emails after buying. Customers whose first-order profile matches last year's one-time buyers are least likely to return and need a second-purchase nudge now.
Why it matters
The gap between first and second order is where many new customers are lost. Knowing who is least likely to return lets you spend second-purchase incentives where they change behavior, and spares discounts for customers who would come back anyway.
The question to ask
Copy this into Lexi as written.
What the answer looks like
Illustrative output on sample data
Illustrative example: how Lexi answers this for a beauty retailer scoring 21,000 customers acquired this quarter on their first order.
- Lowers the score for first orders of only a discounted gift set.
- Lowers the score for marketplace and coupon site customers.
- Raises the score for replenishable products, such as cleanser or serum.
- Raises the score for customers who opened a post-purchase email.
What the data shows
6,800 customers fall in the lowest band, and 71% of them first bought a holiday gift set at 30% off or more.
What it means
These customers have not yet bought anything they need to replace, so another discount is unlikely to build a habit.
What to do
Send them a replenishment sample with their next email.
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Frequently asked questions
What first-order signals predict a customer will not return?
Signals worth testing include a first order made only of discounted or gift items, acquisition through coupon or marketplace channels, a low first-order value and no engagement after purchase. Test each against last year's cohort, since the signals that matter vary by brand and category.
Why not wait six months to see who comes back?
By then the moment has passed. The weeks after a first purchase are when a new customer is most open to a second, and the longer they go without one, the harder it becomes to win. Scoring early lets you act while a nudge is still cheap.
How is first purchase churn different from churn among regular customers?
Regular customers have a purchase rhythm, so churn shows as a gap beyond their usual timing. New customers have no rhythm yet, so their risk has to be inferred from the first order and what similar customers did. That is why first purchase churn models lean on first-order profile and post-purchase activity.